Pro Football Championship Run
4-0 since my return for the 2020-21 season
Four underdogs, three winners!
I returned to this site in Dec. 2020, and have delivered four straight championship winners.
- 2021: 50 Dime Buccaneers outright over Kansas City
- 2022: 60 Dime Bengals covered vs. Los Angeles
- 2023: 80 Dime Chiefs outright over Philadelphia
- 2024: 100 Dime Eagles outright over Kansas City
Here is what I had to say about Kansas City on Feb. 12, 2023:
Revenge is a dish best served in New Orleans, with a side of gumbo. And the Philadelphia Eagles are going to have themselves a full meal on Sunday. The Kansas City Chiefs may be peaking offensively, if that's what you want to call it, but the Eagles' defense is arguably playing at an even higher level while being led by two stars who were still in college when the Chiefs beat the Eagles in Phoenix two years ago.
That loss still stings, and Philly quarterback Jalen Hurts has let it be known the Green Birds are keeping the main thing the main thing, and that there is unfinished business.
Rookie corner Quinyon Mitchell has been the premier defensive back in the league this postseason, allowing just five receptions for 24 yards while hauling in two crucial interceptions. While Mitchell has re-established an Eagles secondary that crumbled down the stretch two years ago, second-year defensive tackle Jalen Carter has already proven to be a generational anchor for the front seven. The Chiefs offensive line hasn’t had the smoothest season, so I expect Carter to have a star-marking performance on the biggest stage in sports.
With star veterans CJ Gardner-Johnson and Darius Slay still in the fold as well, the Eagles led the NFL in DVOA this season and were quietly the league’s most consistent defense all season. Safety Reed Blankenship and nickelback Cooper DeJean are going to be tasked with the Travis Kelce assignment, which tells me the Eagles are fine with letting Taylor Swift's boyfie accumulate his stats if they can keep Patrick Mahomes in the pocket and keep him from improvising downfield.
The Chiefs took advantage of a banged-up, regressing Buffalo Bills defense in the first half of the AFC Championship but also lost momentum down the stretch and found themselves at the mercy of Buffalo’s offense and specifically the run game late. James Cook was getting whatever he wanted against the Chiefs in that second half, so I shudder to think about what Saquon Barkley will do to them once that third- and fourth-quarter fatigue hits. The Eagles elite cover-two defense also matches up very well with Kansas City’s RPO game which typically annihilates other zone defenses. Thus, Sunday will be a true test of strength vs. strength. The AFC title game was not that, as Buffalo was on its back foot and KC was easily able to pounce.
Some folks may be worried about Hurts in this one, but I’ll just remind you of Hurts' MVP-worthy performance in Super Bowl 57 in which he threw for 304 yards and ran for 70 more in addition to leading the Eagles down the field essentially at will. With two weeks off, his knee should be a non-issue and I expect “Big Game Hurts” to show up once again as he has in these moments throughout his career. I also expect Devonta Smith to have a big game out of the slot with Trent McDuffie focusing his efforts on AJ Brown. Take the point(s) in this one, but expect the Eagles to win by at least 5.
College Football Championship Run
2-0 since my return for the 2020-21 season
Two 200 Dime national championship releases in three years, two winners.
I returned to this site in Dec. 2020, and have delivered back-to-back championship winners. I passed in 2025.
- 2023: 200 Dime Georgia (-2') 33-18 over Alabama
- 2024: 200 Dime Michigan (-4') 34-13 over Washington
Here is what I had to say about Michigan on Jan. 8, 2024:
I remember watching the Pac-12 Media Day last July, and seeing Caleb Williams own the spotlight, while Penix just humbly took his place on stage and in interviews. He remained gracious. He was as professional as they come. And I will tell you this, he's ready for the next level, whenever he arrives.
Unfortunately on Monday, he won't be ready for a defense that smothers the opposition, wears you down up the middle, and can bring edge rushers at you upon snap. And herein lies the problem for Penix, who is far from a two-way quarterback.
In 14 games this season, you know how many rushing yards Penix has? A whopping 13 (insert Price of Right wrong answer sound here, "wha-wha, wha, whaaaa"). I'll give it to him, he can fling it, and he can place it on a dime. But under duress, constant pressure for every moment he steps back, it'll be hard to overcome.
Michigan's defense has limited the opposition to just seven passing touchdowns, a 55.5% completion percentage and a bleak 140 yards through the air per game. Overall, offensive units are gaining only 226.9 yards per game.
On the other side of the ball, it's natural to wonder if the Wolverines have the type of offense that can keep up Washington, right? It doesn't matter.
When you allowed the fewest yards per game during the regular season in the FBS (243.1), and you're tied for the most defensive TDs (five), all you need is a disciplined offense that is good enough to manage the clock, move the ball efficiently and get points by any means necessary.
I mean, J.J. McCarthy does rank in the top 10 in passing efficiency, and the Wolverines do have the third-best fourth-down conversion rate nationally. They're also extremely disciplined, having committed only 40 penalties in 14 games.
Overall, resiliency and calm have me convinced the Wolverines are the right side of this game. Jim Harbaugh suspended? Twice? No problem, the team played through the adversity and won. The sign-stealing controversy they got caught for - and nobody else has when we all know so many teams do it - distractions wouldn't prevail. Alabama comes back and forces overtime? Eh, our defense will stymie the Tide and McCarthy will stay poised.
The Huskies are a tremendous team, I'll give them that. But they allow too much offense. Penix can't save the day when his defensive counterparts can't slow the opposition. Washington's stop unit ranked 94th in the nation, allowing more than 400 yards per game. The Huskies ranked 120th in giving up 267.1 yards through the air, per game. Teams scored more than 30 points in six of their 14 games. Their red-zone defense ranked tied for 73rd (84.0%).
Fact is, Penix can't do it all when he's facing a defense that is better than Texas (semifinal), better than Oregon (Pac-12 championship), and better than any defense he faced during conference play.
Michigan is far better than Washington on the whole, and when the smoke clears, the Wolverines look more like a 6- or 7-point winner for the National Championship, sending Harbaugh to the NFL with a shiny new ring.
Lay the points.
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Gus Augustine's Rating System
My best bet is a 50K round-robin, quadruple, gazillion, bet your life's savings lock.Are you f@%king kidding me?
This is really simple:
A 100-Dime play is my normal Max Wager.
That's the cream of the crop.
A 50-Dime play is worth 1/2 as much.
A 25-Dimer is worth 1/4 as much.
Now a rating system is only as good as your bankroll allocation, or money-management skills.
If you have a $100 to play today, and I have a 100 Dime play, then you should bet all $100 on it.
If I have a 50 Dimer, then you should wager just $50.
Let's take it a step further and talk about how you allocate your bankroll over the course of a week:
If you have $500 to wager for a week, then you divide by 7 days and that gives you around $70 (rounding down) as a daily max wager. So in this case, a 100 Dimer is worth $70 with a 50 Dimer being a $35 investment.
What happens if I win?
You can either pocket the profit or add to the pot, increasing the wager size.
What happens if I lose?
Your max wager remains the same initial $70 because you did the math and spread your bankroll across those 7 days to start the betting week.